Everyone's World Cup favourites, but could the All Blacks have peaked too soon?

Yes, New Zealand have the athleticism, skill and open-handling style. But only fleetness of foot and brain will secure them Rugby Union's most coveted trophy for the first time in 20 years.

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In the history of the tournament, the All Blacks have been the most consistent losers. Three times beaten semi-finalists, once losing finalists. Only in the first tournament in 1987 did they live up to the promise and win the trophy, beating France 29-9.

So why have they failed so spectacularly to fulfil their potential and take what many view as their right place in the history books? Perhaps the most obvious answer is the fast and open style of rugby they play. While thrilling for spectators to watch, it’s a high-risk style that can be difficult to achieve.

To begin with, it requires players of the highest athletic ability. That’s not a problem for the New Zealanders; they have always been good athletes. It also needs players with high skill levels, again not a problem area. Max Boyce sang a song about a Welsh factory producing outside halves; the New Zealanders took that idea, combined it with Japanese technology, and the result was players like Joe Rokocoko and Daniel Carter.

So the All Blacks have the athleticism and skill for the 15-man, open-handling style of rugby that they play. What’s also needed is the ability to make snap judgements; to play to a planned strategy but to be able to abandon that if it’s failing or another opportunity arises. Decisions have to be made quickly. Each man has to be aware of where his own team-mates are, where the opposition players are, and where they all will be in a second’s time. Fast of foot and fast of brain. Luck has very little to do with it.

And, inevitably, this is where there will be mistakes. Not even the All Blacks can get it right every time. Maybe luck does have something to do with it.

While this strategy works well against teams of modest ability, who are quickly blown out of sight, top level teams are a different matter. You don’t get to the top level of rugby without having a brilliant defensive system, and the teams at the top of the game have superbly well-organised defences.

It’s also a very physical defence that wears down both the defending and attacking sides. Gone are the days when the fitness level of Northern Hemisphere teams was judged by the amount of beer they could put away. Gone too are the days when the All Black wings could fly past the opposition unchallenged.

Indeed, before the wings can even rev up, their forwards need to get hold of the ball. And, judging by New Zealand’s performance in the recently-completed Tri-Nations championship, that could be their downfall this time round. In the final game with Australia, their failure to win lineout ball or to create any try-generating moves showed an untimely weakness.

In the last 18 months, they’ve won 18 internationals and lost two (to South Africa and Australia – small consolation to Northern Hemisphere teams). That’s a record most sides would love to have, yet there were worried faces behind the men lifting this year’s Tri-Nations trophy. Could it be that they’ve peaked too soon? That, pundits suggest, is what happened in previous World Cups. As IRB world-ranked No.1 and odds-on favourites to take the World Cup, the pressure is on the All Blacks to live up to the talk.

Twenty years on from the inaugural Rugby World Cup, will it be New Zealand’s turn to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy again at last? Is the crown theirs for the taking?

Liz Hinds